Jobs report due out at the bottom of the hour
Wednesday’s soft readings on ADP and ISM services employment put a negative bias into the jobs data. The consensus is 198K from +49K in January. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 6.3%.
As BMO highlights, seasonally there is a
solid tendency for the February job report to beat estimates, with 70% of February prints coming in
The market reaction is as big a puzzle as the headline. I believe that bad news would be good news. The market doesn’t want to see anything to push yields any higher. A weak reading would weight, especially a negative reading. That would help to stabilize everything and would be helpful to get the stimulus package across the finish line. In USD terms, weak would be weak and strong would be strong, particularly versus JPY.