Comments from a client note from Australia’s Commonwealth Bank (CBA)
CBA’s outlook is for AUD/USD to trade below a fair value implied by fundamentals. CBA’s valuation model incorporates commodity prices and the 2-year interest rate differential between Australia and US.
- undervaluation to persist in the near term due to broad strength for the US dollar
- once economies outside the US show further recovery the USD should resume its downtrend
- this will impact to push AUD/USD back toward 0.83 (CBA’s fair value range for AUD/USD is 0.78/0.89)
AUD/USD weekly candles: