Nifty Outlook : Monday, 15th March 2021
The Nifty index opened gap up above 15300 on Friday but selling pressure across the market pulled the index near to 14950 zones. It cascaded throughout the day and the second half of the session saw sharp decline. However, some support based recovery was seen in the last hour and it closed near to 15000 zones with losses of around 143 points. It formed a strong Bearish candle on daily and a Doji sort of candle on weekly scale. It negated its higher lows formation of the last three sessions and wiped out the bullish momentum. Now, it has to decisively hold above 15,000 zones to witness an up move towards 15200 and 15300 zones while on the downside immediate support exists at 14900 then 14800 levels.
Stocks (spot levels) :
India VIX moved up by 4.61% from 20.74 to 21.70 levels. Cool down in VIX below 21-20 zones is required for bullish grip and smoother move in the market. On option front, Maximum Put OI is at 14000 followed by 14500 strike while maximum Call OI is at 16000 followed by 15500 strike. Call writing is seen at 15500 then 15300 strike while Put writing is seen at 15000 then 14700 strike. Option data suggests a wider trading range in between 14500 to 15500 zones while an immediate range in between 14800 to 15300 zones.
Bank Nifty opened gap up on Friday but it failed to cross 36500 zones and drifted lower. It stooped down below 35200 and settled the day with losses of around 440 points. It formed a Bearish candle on daily and a Doji on weekly scale which indicates sustained selling pressure seen at higher zones even after recovery at support zones. Now it has to continue to hold above 35500 zones to witness an up move towards 36000 and 36500 zones while on the downside support exists at 35000 then 34750 levels.
Nifty: Weekly : Bull Call Spread: +15100 CE – 15250 CE (18th Mar, 2021)
Buy 1 lot of 15100 call@ 121
Sell 1 lot of 15250 call@ 67
Net premium paid: 54 points
Keep SL of net premium of 15 points: risk of 39 points
Keep target of net premium of 140 poits: reward 86 points
Major trend is positive even after slight correction so declines could be bought again
India VIX has cooled down and thus holding the overall bullish undertone of the market
Put writing is intact at lower strikes which could provide support
Kishore Narne, MOFSL
USD/INR Status: The pair is likely to trade in a lower range for short-term!
Stop Loss: 73.30
Trade: The pair is likely to trade in a lower range as long as 73.25 is capping the upside. Selling on rise towards 73.05 is recommended targeting 72.50 levels.
USD/JPY Status: The pair is likely to extend its uptrend in short-term!
Stop Loss: 108.10
Trade: The pair is likely to extend its upward momentum and looks to target 109.80 mark. Dip buying towards support at 108.50 thus recommended.
Amit Sajeja, MOFSL