Casey’s General Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:CASY) just released its latest full-year results and things are looking bullish. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 2.5% to hit US$8.7b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$8.38, some 3.1% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there’s been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we’ve aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Casey’s General Stores after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Casey’s General Stores from nine analysts is for revenues of US$10.2b in 2022 which, if met, would be a solid 17% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$8.28, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$10.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$8.35 in 2022. So it’s pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there’s been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$219, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Casey’s General Stores analyst has a price target of US$262 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$170. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock’s future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It’s clear from the latest estimates that Casey’s General Stores’ rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 6.2% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.6% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Casey’s General Stores to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there’s been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations – and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year’s earnings. We have estimates – from multiple Casey’s General Stores analysts – going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don’t forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we’ve identified 1 warning sign for Casey’s General Stores that you should be aware of.
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