All is quiet on Wall Street as the U.S. stock markets are closed in observance of Good Friday. Of course, it’s still all-systems-go on the cryptocurrency and forex markets. At press time, the Greenback is relatively quiet as many liquidity providers are out of the office. Modest moves in the EUR/USD (-0.17%), CNY/USD (-0.03%), and USD/JPY (+0.08%) have defined the forex action.
The big financial story of the day has been March’s rally in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls. Figures came in strong, suggesting that a jobs rebound is well underway. Here’s a look at the hard data:
Event Actual Projected Previous
Non-Farm Payrolls (March) 916K 647K 468K
Government Payrolls (March) 136K NA -90K
Unemployment Rate (March) 6.0% 6.0% 6.2%
This set of numbers is exceedingly positive, specifically the jump in Non-Farm Payrolls. The figure came in at 916,000 jobs, nearly doubling February’s figure. Accordingly, the U.S. Unemployment Rate dropped to 6.0%, still well above pre-COVID-19 levels around 3.5%. As of now, it appears that the American labor market is on pace to hit the Fed’s 4.5% unemployment estimate for 2021.
It’s been an optimistic Good Friday news cycle. Let’s take a look at the USD/CHF and see if a pullback is imminent.
It’s A Slow Good Friday On The Forex
The USD/CHF has posted an ultra-tight 29 pip intraday range amid light participation. For early April, a bullish bias remains warranted as rates are well above daily support.
Here are two levels worth watching going into the Monday session:
- Resistance(1): 2021 High, 0.9472
- Support(1): Daily SMA, 0.9351
Bottom Line: Next week will be an interesting period for the USD as March’s FOMC Minutes are due out Wednesday. The release will be one of the more scrutinized in recent memory. The Fed is pondering the future of their unlimited QE policies; any shift in tone will surely spike forex volatility.
If we get a pullback from current levels, a buying opportunity may set up in the USD/CHF. As long as 0.9472 remains 2021’s high, I’ll have buy orders in the queue from 0.9356. With an initial stop loss at 0.9321, this trade produces 25 pips on a sub-1:1 risk vs reward ratio.