Back near the middle of the range.
The USDJPY has been stock in a range over the last 12 trading days between 108.328 and 109.357. That 103 pips is very narrow for a 2+ week trading period. The pair is jumping up and down indicative of a market which is unsure of the next major move.
Looking at the hourly chart, yesterday the lows for the day stalled just ahead of the lower swing area between 108.32 and 108.37. The low price reached 108.398.
The rally off the low stalled against a topside trendline on the chart above and rotated lower into the Asian session today. In the late Asian/early European session, the price started to move back higher and extended above the aforementioned trendline in addition to a swing area going back to last week between 108.60 and 108.62.
The move higher over the last hour or so has now taken the price above the 100 hour moving average at 108.77 and up to the 200 hour moving average of 108.921. The high reached 108.95 and has now settled back between the moving average levels (blue and green lines). The pair is trading near the midpoint of the 12-13 day range.
Overall, the sellers had their shot to extend lower yesterday but found dip buyers against the low instead. Today’s move back above the trend line and 108.61 area, took more wind out of the sellers sails. Now with the price between the moving averages, and around the 50% of the narrow 103 pip trading range, the market is in a neutral area (within a narrow range). Traders will wait for the next shove. At some point, the dynamics of the market will lead to a break as non-trending transition to trending, but for now, the pair is stuck in the mud and traders are following the intraday technical levels for clues.
PS. Intermarket clues area coming from the interest rate market. The 10 year yield reached as low as 1.5872% overnight but is now back up testing the 200 hour moving average at 1.6413%. THe 100 hour moving averages at 1.6761%. The rise in yields has seemed to push flows into the USD today.