Runs below the 100 hour MA
The USDCHF joined the USD selling in the last hour of trading. In the process, the pair ran below the 100 hour MA at 0.91174. The low has reached 0.90925.
The next key downside target comes in at the 200 day moving average at 0.90854. Recall from last week, the price dipped below that MA on Thursday and again on Friday over multiple hourly bars. The low price reached 0.90796 only about six pips below the moving average level. That’s not a lot of momentum on the breaks.
Going forward it would take something more to get traders excited on the downside. In addition the because of the failures last week, traders may also be hesitant ahead of the level (i.e. buy against the level, with stops on a break below). Be aware.
Having said that, as painful to the sellers of the breaks below the 200 day moving average last week, the recent moves above its 200 hour moving average above (see higher green line currently at 0.91367) have been equally as frustrating.
Last Wednesday, the price finally broke above the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above) for the first time since April 5 (not shown), but failed and moved lower. Today, price action saw a move above the moving average on six separate hourly bars. There was one bar that closed above the moving average line (and a second that closed right on the moving average line). Each break found sellers not far from the MA level.
So there is some history of failed breaks above and below for the USDCHF pair. At some point, there will be a break and run. Today the sellers are making the most recent play.