A look at the major pairs
So what technical levels are in play through the FOMC decision and press conference that could trigger a run in some of the major currency pairs?
EURUSD. The EURUSD extended above a ceiling area between 1.2088 and 1.2093 but could only get to a high of 1.2102 so far. The price is currently trading at 1.2088 again. The buyers had their shot to run at higher ahead of the FOMC, but it seems there is some apprehension. I would be surprised if the price packs off a little before the release.
On a move higher, getting back above 1.20930 and staying above that level still is a key target. After that the high price from Monday at 1.21164 becomes the next target. That would also take the price above a topside trendline on the daily chart at 1.2114 currently. Trading above the high would have the pair trading to the highest level since February 25. There should be more open road ahead with 1.2150 as the next target.
On the downside, the 100 hour moving average comes in at 1.20693. Move below that level and the 100 day moving average of 1.2053 would be the main target. The price yesterday and again today got close to that 100 day moving average only to find dip buyers against it.
GBPUSD: Keep it simple. The GBPUSD has traded in a 71 PIP trading range for the week. We are more than halfway through the week leaving the rest of today tomorrow and Friday for an extension. Hopefully the Fed decision leads to a break outside and continued trend at least for some distance outside the higher extreme (above 1.39286) or the lower extreme (below 1.38577).
In between those extremes 6200 and 100 hour moving averages at 1.3900 and 1.3882. Those moving averages should be parameters for bullish or bearish as well. Stay above would tilt the buyers more to the upside. Move below and the bias tilts more to the downside.
USDJPY: The USDJPY trended higher after moving above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages earlier this week. The pair today extended above the 38.2% retracement at 108.804, but has been trading above and below that level over the last few hours.
Should the price moved back below 38.2% retracement and then a swing area between 108.54 108.619, the selling could intensify back toward the 100 and 200 hour moving average is near 108.24 currently.
On the topside, the I today stalled near the high from April 14 at 109.089. Get above that level and then the 50% retracement of the move down from the March 31 high at 109.215, would tilt the price action to the upper half of the range since the last peak.
USDCHF. The USDCHF traded to a new cycle low (and lowest level since March 1), but only by a few pips. The low came in at 0.9119. The price is currently trading at 0.9132. If the selling is to continue, getting and staying below that level is the obvious target.
On the topside, the price earlier today traded above the 200 hour moving average for the first time since April 5. However momentum cannot be sustained in the price started to reuse the moving average as resistance in the early New York session. Getting back above the 200 hour moving average of 0.91573 is imperative if the buyers are to take back more control from the sellers.
USDCAD: The USDCAD traded to the lowest level since February 2018 with its move below the March 2021 low at 1.23644. For the pair, the momentum has been to the downside since the run lower after the BOC rate decision last week. Today, the pair broke out of a two day consolidation in continued the downward trajectory.
For the pair, simply stay below the prior low at 1.23646, keeps the seller in control and the bias bearish. Also watch the 1.2377 to 1.23837 area on the topside. Move above the prior low and that area, and the sellers are losing some of their control.