Forex news for North American trading on April 12, 2021
It’s Monday with no key economic releases.
Fed’s Bullard and Rosengren both spoke and reiterated the party line for Fed policy with no change in policy until employment moves lower and inflation is deemed to be not transitory. That will take time and risks for variants of the Covid remain a concern.
The US treasury did auction off $96B of notes ($58B of 3 year and $38B of 10 year notes) today in addition to regular bill auctions. Each went off without much in the way of yield concessions. Demand was near recent auction averages although yields are also at higher level going to the 1st quarter of last year. In the US debt market, yields are ending the day marginally higher with 5 year yields up 2.2 basis points and 10 year yields up 1.0 basis points. The 2-10 year spread remained near unchanged on the day at around 150.25 basis points.
The US stocks were also relatively contained but mostly negative on the day. The S&P and Dow came off record closing levels on Friday. The Nasdaq was on a 2 day up streak. All three major indices ended the session lower on the day, with the Nasdaq down the most at the close (-0.36%). Both the Dow and the Nasdaq never reached into positive territory today. The S&P did trade in the black but still closed down on the day, but only by the smallest of margins (-0.02%). European shares also closed with declines across the major indices.
In the forex market, the USD was mixed (which seems appropriate) with the gains vs the commodity currencies led by the CAD (+0.28%) and NZD (+0.11%) and declines vs the GBP (-0.23%), JPY (-0.23%), CHF (-0.16%). The dollar was little changed vs the EUR and the AUD. The GBP and JPY were neck and neck for the strongest of the majors, while the CAD was the weakest.
Looking at some of the major pairs from a technical basis:
EURUSD: The EURUSD traded in a narrow 19 pip trading range in the NY and only a 48 pip range for the day (average is 66 pips over the last month). Into the new trading day, the 100 hour MA is converged with the 200 day MA at 1.1890 level. The price is trading at 1.1909. That level will be a key level for the day and going forward. Stay keeps the buyers in control. Move below and we should see further selling with 1.1860 the floor over the last 4 trading days.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD raced higher today into the NY open, but after peaking at 1.3776 between the 100 hour MA below and the 200 hour MA (at 1.3793) above, the price fell back below the 100 hour MA (currently at 1.3748). The price is trading at 1.3742 currently. In the new trading day, getting back above the 100 hour MA followed by the 38.2% of the move down from the high last week at 1.37636 would be the bullish play. If the 1.37177 to 1.37277 level is broken to the downside, that would give the sellers more confidence. The bias is a touch negative going into the new trading day.
USDCAD: The USDCAD traded between the 200 hour MA and 100 hour MA on two separate occasions today only to find willing sellers on each attempt (the 200 is at 1.2566 and the 100 is at 1.25764). The current price is at 1.25633. If the price is to go higher, getting and staying above those MA will be needed. On the downside, the traders will eye a move below the 1.25387 (38.2% of the move up from May 18) as a step in the more bearish direction. However a move below 1.2520 would give sellers more confidence to the downside.
AUDUSD: the AUDUSD tried to extend above the 100 hour MA today at 0.7630, but could not get by a few pips above the MA level. It will take a move above to give buyers more control. The current price is at 0.7621. On the downside, the pair has an April 2 low at 0.7587 and a April 9 low at the same level. Get below that level should open the door for a more bearish bias for the pair.
NZDUSD: The NZDUSD is mired in a narrow trading range between 0.6994 and 0.7069 over the last 7 trading days. IN between sits the 100 and 200 hour MAs at 0.70265 and 0.70365. The current price is at 0.7028. The close bias determinant will be the MAs into the new day. Stay below is more bearish. Move above is more bullish. Once that is decided the aforementioned recent range high and low will be targeted.
In other markets into the NY session:
- Spot gold is down $11.47 or -0.66% at $1732.39.
- Spot silver is down $0.43 or -1.74% at $24.82
- WTI crude oil futures are up $0.44 or 0.74% $59.76
- Bitcoin on point basis of $380 or 0.64% at $60,059. The high price reached $61,199. The low price extended to $59,369
Tomorrow, the US CPI data will be released which after the sharp rise in PPI will be eyed by traders for inflation flowing down from wholesale to the consumer. The U.S. Treasury will auction off the 30 year bonds at 1 PM ET. Feds Bostic will speak. The major earnings releases won’t start until Wednesday. Below is a list of some of the major releases ahead for tomorrow and the rest of the week:
Tuesday, April 13
- Washington Federal
Wednesday, April 14
- JP Morgan*
- Wells Fargo*
- Goldman Sachs*
- First Republic Bank*
- Bed Bath and Beyond*
Thursday, April 15
- Delta Air Lines*
- Rite Aid Corp*
- Bank of America*
- JB Hunt Transport Services
- US Bancorp*
- UnitedHealth Group*
- PPG Industries
Friday, April 16
- Bank of NY Mellon*
- State Street Corp*
- PNC Financial Services Group*
- Morgan Stanley*