Trades in up and down choppy session but below 200 hour MA
The EURUSD has been trading with an up and down choppy price action so far today. The low to high trading range is only 30 pips (the 22 day average is 75 pips). There is room to roam but with the FOMC decision later today, the traders seem content to stay close to home (or the closing level from yesterday give or take).
Technically, the pair is holding onto a more bearish bias as the price high found sellers against its 200 hour MA at 1.19152. Stay below it, keeps the sellers more in control. If the price is able to move above it, the 100 hour MA and trend line are in the 1.1933-36 area currently. Through the FOMC decision, if the price is able to extend above both those levels, it would shift the bias more to the upside. The high for the week was on Monday at 1.19667. That is ahead of the 50% midpoint of the March trading range at 1.19739.
On weakness, the low for the week so far came in at 1.18816. The low today was above that at 1.18857. On a new week low, the swing area ahead of the low from last week, comes in between 1.1864 and 1.18677 (see yellow area on the downside). The low from last week (and the lowest level November 24) comes in at 1.1835. That is just below the KEY 200 day MA at 1.18373. So earmark that level as a very important level for the market. The price of the EURUSD has not traded below its 200 day MA since May 27, 2020 (see green line in the chart below).
All will be dependent on the FOMC today and the market price action. The EURUSD tends to react more negatively to higher rates/lower stocks, but the correlation can be wonky as well. So the technical levels provide the roadmap for bias. Right now, below the 200 hour MA is tilted in the sellers court. Between the 100/200 hour MA is neutral. Above the 100 hour MA and trend line) is bullish. That is the roadmap for the bias today.